National Development Research Institute of Peking University [Lecture 5 of "National Development" Series of Online Lectures] Huang Yiping: Digital Economy at a New Starting Point
On March 7, 2020, the fifth lecture of the “National Development” series of online lectures of the National Development Institute of Peking University was invited by Huang Yiping, a professor of Peking University International Development Institute Jinguang, a vice president of Peking University International Development Institute, and the director of Peking University Digital Finance Research Center Acting as the main speaker.
The new crown epidemic has cast a shadow over the Chinese economy and the world economy. The stock market has fallen and the economy has slowed down. However, opportunities are also hidden in the crisis.
In this lecture, Mr. Huang Yiping pointed out that China's digital economy may be standing at a new starting point. The epidemic highlights the value of contactless transactions, the aging population requires machines to replace people, and the implementation of the fourth industrial revolution, especially 5G technology, will make a series of things that were impossible in the past possible. He even believes that following the first wave of globalization that focuses on trade in goods and the second wave of globalization that focuses on capital flows, data connectivity is likely to drive a new wave of globalization. And this will bring tremendous changes to our society.
The online economy has become a stabilizer of the macro economy
In the view of Mr. Huang, the new crown epidemic, just like the natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods that humans face, not only brought a lot of direct economic losses, but also the indirect losses caused by business interruptions. But according to French economist Bascia's "broken window theory"-breaking a piece of glass, it can provide countless money and employment opportunities, and more gains than losses. Similarly, this time the epidemic may cause losses while creating some opportunities.
Compared with the SARS period 17 years ago, some offline transactions affected by the new crown epidemic today have been turned online, thereby reducing losses to a certain extent and making the overall economy relatively stable. For example, 40% of restaurants are engaged in take-out businesses, and even Wenzhou's "Red Dragonfly" shoe-selling stores have moved online; while parks, museums, hotels, aviation, and other industries have suffered heavy setbacks, online education, online film and television The small and micro loans of Internet banks are “the best scenery here”.
"The epidemic has caused huge impacts on the economy of various sectors, but small and medium-sized enterprises may be the most difficult." Teacher Huang emphasized that the biggest risk of small and medium-sized enterprises may lie in cash flow disruption, and the sudden collapse of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises may affect large areas. A vicious circle is formed between unemployment and rising non-performing assets. The only way to mitigate this risk is to increase revenue, reduce expenses and obtain external financing. At present, although the government has issued a strong policy, it needs more "grabbing hands" to implement it.
Digital Finance is a "Send Charity in the Snow" for SMEs
"If the traditional banking industry is often the icing on the cake, then digital finance can" give credit to the majority of small, medium and micro enterprises. "—— Ms. Huang described the uniqueness of" evaluating credit risk with large data instead of mortgage assets "in this way. Advantage.
During the new crown epidemic, Internet banks can overcome the “real-life” obstacles, use transaction data, behavioral data, and network effects on Alipay and other Internet platforms to assess the type of risk for small, medium and micro enterprises, and use machine learning models to more accurately predict defaults Rate, make use of the advantages of large technology platforms to achieve rapid and massive borrowing, and provide strong support for small, medium and micro enterprises.
"Now China's digital finance has crossed the famous Hu Huanyong line, and it has also developed rapidly in the central and western regions where the population is sparsely populated. The reason is that online financial transactions are no longer limited by region."
Are we ready for the fourth industrial revolution?
The reason why the digital economy has broad development prospects in China is because, on the one hand, the epidemic has increased the demand for a large number of contactless transactions, and online healthcare, online education, unmanned distribution and other industries are booming; on the other hand, The rising dependency ratio and the decline in the working-age population are also calling for more automated production and automated services.
Looking at the broader era, Mr. Huang even thinks that this is the fourth industrial revolution driven by new technologies represented by artificial intelligence, big data and robots. In this "revolution", 5G technology will connect people with things, things with things, and smart cities, smart transportation, smart medical care, and digital finance will develop rapidly, thereby forming an explosion of the digital economy; data will become the new world economy. As a driving force, global supply chains, digital currencies and transnational medical services will form a new wave of globalization.
But at the same time, Huang Yiping also saw the challenges posed by the digital economy and globalization.
"The most critical thing is how to balance the benefits and risks of the digital economy. With more management, innovation is difficult to do. With less management, it is easy to bring risks. Bitcoin is a good example. We hope that it will bring financial innovation, but if Poor supervision may also become a tool for money laundering. "
Facing a new wave of globalization, Huang Yiping is asking:
Should we embrace it? When the big wave strikes, will we be accomplished or defeated?
With the rapid development of online education in the New Crown epidemic, Mr. Huang Yiping believes that in another ten years, the education industry he is engaged in will also undergo tremendous changes.
"If globalization closes this door for us, will it open another door for us?" (Written by Zhang Tong)
"National Development" Series of Online Lectures
This series of lectures aims to build an exchange and interaction platform for MBA / EMBA students, famous teachers from the National Development Institute, and experts in various disciplines, etc. On the one hand, students have more opportunities to communicate and communicate with famous experts and scholars, and On the one hand, it also helps trainees to have a deeper understanding of China's economic and social development.
The "National Development" series of online lectures covers a wide range of contents and integrates the expertise of each family. As an important part of the MBA / EMBA program, this series of lectures will help students broaden their horizons, inspire them to think independently, and improve their overall quality.
The Peking University National Development Institute brings together renowned economics and management experts and scholars in a variety of disciplines such as economics, management, political science, educational economics, and demography. Adhering to Peking University's inclusive and harmonious style of study, the College pays great attention to the real problems of Chinese society, is committed to the combination of academic and reality, and spares no effort to promote national progress.
EMBA inspires students to think multi-dimensionally through a variety of teaching formats, including compulsory courses, elective courses, national development special lectures and closed-door meetings, and exchanges with students to explore economic management professional knowledge and practical issues.
If you want to know more about the faculty and courses of the EMBA program, and hope to have the opportunity to personally audition and experience the EMBA class of the National Development Institute, please contact the admissions teacher of the EMBA Center for specific consultation
The new crown epidemic has cast a shadow over the Chinese economy and the world economy. The stock market has fallen and the economy has slowed down. However, opportunities are also hidden in the crisis.
In this lecture, Mr. Huang Yiping pointed out that China's digital economy may be standing at a new starting point. The epidemic highlights the value of contactless transactions, the aging population requires machines to replace people, and the implementation of the fourth industrial revolution, especially 5G technology, will make a series of things that were impossible in the past possible. He even believes that following the first wave of globalization that focuses on trade in goods and the second wave of globalization that focuses on capital flows, data connectivity is likely to drive a new wave of globalization. And this will bring tremendous changes to our society.
The online economy has become a stabilizer of the macro economy
In the view of Mr. Huang, the new crown epidemic, just like the natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods that humans face, not only brought a lot of direct economic losses, but also the indirect losses caused by business interruptions. But according to French economist Bascia's "broken window theory"-breaking a piece of glass, it can provide countless money and employment opportunities, and more gains than losses. Similarly, this time the epidemic may cause losses while creating some opportunities.
Compared with the SARS period 17 years ago, some offline transactions affected by the new crown epidemic today have been turned online, thereby reducing losses to a certain extent and making the overall economy relatively stable. For example, 40% of restaurants are engaged in take-out businesses, and even Wenzhou's "Red Dragonfly" shoe-selling stores have moved online; while parks, museums, hotels, aviation, and other industries have suffered heavy setbacks, online education, online film and television The small and micro loans of Internet banks are “the best scenery here”.
"The epidemic has caused huge impacts on the economy of various sectors, but small and medium-sized enterprises may be the most difficult." Teacher Huang emphasized that the biggest risk of small and medium-sized enterprises may lie in cash flow disruption, and the sudden collapse of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises may affect large areas. A vicious circle is formed between unemployment and rising non-performing assets. The only way to mitigate this risk is to increase revenue, reduce expenses and obtain external financing. At present, although the government has issued a strong policy, it needs more "grabbing hands" to implement it.
Digital Finance is a "Send Charity in the Snow" for SMEs
"If the traditional banking industry is often the icing on the cake, then digital finance can" give credit to the majority of small, medium and micro enterprises. "—— Ms. Huang described the uniqueness of" evaluating credit risk with large data instead of mortgage assets "in this way. Advantage.
During the new crown epidemic, Internet banks can overcome the “real-life” obstacles, use transaction data, behavioral data, and network effects on Alipay and other Internet platforms to assess the type of risk for small, medium and micro enterprises, and use machine learning models to more accurately predict defaults Rate, make use of the advantages of large technology platforms to achieve rapid and massive borrowing, and provide strong support for small, medium and micro enterprises.
"Now China's digital finance has crossed the famous Hu Huanyong line, and it has also developed rapidly in the central and western regions where the population is sparsely populated. The reason is that online financial transactions are no longer limited by region."
Are we ready for the fourth industrial revolution?
The reason why the digital economy has broad development prospects in China is because, on the one hand, the epidemic has increased the demand for a large number of contactless transactions, and online healthcare, online education, unmanned distribution and other industries are booming; on the other hand, The rising dependency ratio and the decline in the working-age population are also calling for more automated production and automated services.
Looking at the broader era, Mr. Huang even thinks that this is the fourth industrial revolution driven by new technologies represented by artificial intelligence, big data and robots. In this "revolution", 5G technology will connect people with things, things with things, and smart cities, smart transportation, smart medical care, and digital finance will develop rapidly, thereby forming an explosion of the digital economy; data will become the new world economy. As a driving force, global supply chains, digital currencies and transnational medical services will form a new wave of globalization.
But at the same time, Huang Yiping also saw the challenges posed by the digital economy and globalization.
"The most critical thing is how to balance the benefits and risks of the digital economy. With more management, innovation is difficult to do. With less management, it is easy to bring risks. Bitcoin is a good example. We hope that it will bring financial innovation, but if Poor supervision may also become a tool for money laundering. "
Facing a new wave of globalization, Huang Yiping is asking:
Should we embrace it? When the big wave strikes, will we be accomplished or defeated?
With the rapid development of online education in the New Crown epidemic, Mr. Huang Yiping believes that in another ten years, the education industry he is engaged in will also undergo tremendous changes.
"If globalization closes this door for us, will it open another door for us?" (Written by Zhang Tong)
"National Development" Series of Online Lectures
This series of lectures aims to build an exchange and interaction platform for MBA / EMBA students, famous teachers from the National Development Institute, and experts in various disciplines, etc. On the one hand, students have more opportunities to communicate and communicate with famous experts and scholars, and On the one hand, it also helps trainees to have a deeper understanding of China's economic and social development.
The "National Development" series of online lectures covers a wide range of contents and integrates the expertise of each family. As an important part of the MBA / EMBA program, this series of lectures will help students broaden their horizons, inspire them to think independently, and improve their overall quality.
The Peking University National Development Institute brings together renowned economics and management experts and scholars in a variety of disciplines such as economics, management, political science, educational economics, and demography. Adhering to Peking University's inclusive and harmonious style of study, the College pays great attention to the real problems of Chinese society, is committed to the combination of academic and reality, and spares no effort to promote national progress.
EMBA inspires students to think multi-dimensionally through a variety of teaching formats, including compulsory courses, elective courses, national development special lectures and closed-door meetings, and exchanges with students to explore economic management professional knowledge and practical issues.
If you want to know more about the faculty and courses of the EMBA program, and hope to have the opportunity to personally audition and experience the EMBA class of the National Development Institute, please contact the admissions teacher of the EMBA Center for specific consultation
Comments
Post a Comment